JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Struggling soybean farmers in Missouri have been hit hard by President Trump’s trade war with China, but so far they aren’t taking out their frustration on the Republican running for Sen. Claire McCaskill’s Senate seat.
Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley and McCaskill are in one of the country’s most competitive races in the 2018 midterm elections, and Hawley might have loyal soybean farmers to thank for keeping the contest tight.
“I haven’t seen any backlash to Trump yet,” Missouri Farm Bureau’s public affairs director Eric Bohl told the Washington Examiner. “It hurts right now, but the people I’ve talked to seem to trust that there’ll be long-term victories. I think they want to give them a chance to negotiate some more.”
The Farm Bureau, which boasts 130,000 member families across Missouri, endorsed Hawley over McCaskill in August. The advocacy group’s vocal support of Hawley is at odds with others in the state.
The Missouri Soybean Association has no position on the Senate race, although the group’s president, C. Brooks Hurts, was quoted this month saying the state was seeing a “direct hit to not only farmers, but to our rural communities and all of Missouri” because of Trump’s trade dispute.
Representatives from Missouri Young Farmers and Missouri Farmers Care didn’t respond to requests for comment.
The Farm Bureau’s pro-GOP stance seems to align with that of its members. Research from Ipsos released in October suggests that nearly half of likely voters surveyed prefer Republican economic policies over those of Democrats.
Missouri’s soybean production, the state’s most valuable cash crop, was lashed by a “perfect storm” in 2018, Bohl said. It was struck by a severe drought and Trump’s clash with China over tariffs during a prolonged period of dismal prices, he explained.
Exports to China represent nearly one-third of Missouri’s soybean market, which on average is worth in excess of $2.3 billion annually, according to the University of Missouri. China’s announcement in the summer that it would impose a retaliatory 25 percent import duty on the commodity, however, caused the price per bushel to plummet to a nine-year low. As of Oct. 30, it sits at about $8.33 a bushel, roughly a $2 drop in value.
Trump’s trade war comes as Hawley tries to turn out the president’s base in a red state he won in 2016 by almost 19 points. Hawley has tied himself to Trump in a race largely focused on national issues, with some exceptions.
“If we’re going to be in a war, I’m for winning it,” Hawley said of the tit-for-tat trade dispute last month during his first debate against McCaskill.
McCaskill needs to woo rural voters in case supporters in more urban areas fail to cast ballots in her favor. She has been critical of Trump’s strong-arm tactics against China. The two-term incumbent has also scrutinized the $12 billion aid package Trump rolled out to ameliorate the effects of the tariffs felt by farmers across the country.
“Most farmers don’t want a bailout, they want a market,” McCaskill told constituents in August at a Marion County campaign event.
